Why Traditional Box Scores Lie
Look: points, rebounds, assists — nice, tidy numbers that hide the real story. A player can drop 30 points and still be a liability if every shot is a forced, low-percentage attempt. That’s why coaches whisper about true efficiency.
Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)
eFG% fixes the three-point blind spot. It says, “Hey, a three-pointer is worth more than a two-pointer.” A 55% eFG% on 30 shots beats a 60% raw FG% on 10 attempts. Simple math, massive impact.
How to Use It
Grab the player’s eFG% and compare it to the league average. If it’s 5-7 points higher, you’ve got a hot hand worth trusting in late-game situations. If it’s lower, the player is likely inflating his scorecard with cheap shots.
True Shooting Percentage (TS%)
TS% goes beyond field goals — free throws enter the arena. It calculates total points per shooting attempt, weighting each component correctly. A 60% TS% is elite; a 45% TS% is a red flag.
Quick Check
Take the player’s points, add 0.44 × free-throw attempts, then divide by total field-goal attempts plus 0.44 × free-throw attempts. If the result hovers around .600, you’re looking at a scorer who truly converts.
Player Efficiency Rating (PER)
PER is the NBA’s “grade point average.” It bundles points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, turnovers, and fouls into a single number. The league average is set at 15. Anything above 20 signals a star; below 10 warns of inefficiency.
When PER Misleads
PER inflates volume shooters. A bench player with modest minutes can post a high PER by grabbing a few rebounds and scoring on limited attempts. Context matters — always weigh PER against minutes played.
Usage Rate and Efficiency
High usage + low efficiency equals disaster. A player handling 35% of a team’s plays but shooting only 40% eFG% drags the offense down. Conversely, a 25% usage with 58% eFG% is a pure catalyst.
Balancing Act
Plot usage versus eFG% on a scatter. The sweet spot sits in the upper-left quadrant: moderate usage, high efficiency. That’s the sweet spot coaches chase.
Advanced Play-by-Play Metrics
Lineup plus-minus, on/off stats, and adjusted plus-minus (APM) reveal how a player lifts — or drags — team performance beyond his box score. If a player’s APM is +5 while his PER is 12, he’s an underrated glue guy.
Spotting the Hidden Gems
Look for players with negative turnover rates, high defensive rebounding percentages, and a positive net rating when on the floor. Those stats scream “efficiency” even if the headline numbers look average.
Actionable Takeaway
Here is the deal: ditch the raw points and focus on eFG%, TS%, and usage-adjusted efficiency. Combine those with APM, and you’ll isolate the players who truly move the needle. For a deep dive, check out this article on basketball efficiency stats.